Lessons of Northern Ireland

[Mulu]

One of the better analogies I've seen to the Middle East.

Article

[paazin]

[ç i p h é r]

I enjoyed the read, but a lot of it is already being applied I think. Take this snippet for example. I've bolded the parts which I thought where exceptionally analogous.

The first challenge was how to get in touch. The first step was language, publicly using phrases which we understood from other sources might resonate with the Provisional IRA, which was a proscribed terrorist organisation with whom we were not supposed to talk. The words used were somewhat esoteric, but they were signals. Eventually a signal was received in return, ‘the war is over, help us to end it’. Contact of the barest kind had been made. Meanwhile the bombings and assassinations continued, if anything on an intensified scale, and our military response was commensurate.

What followed was vicarious dialogue that resulted in a narrative which encompassed in general terms the aspirations and grievances of all the participants sufficient to give them a degree of confidence without requiring them to sign up to each others positions - but equally not to expostulate against them. The outcome was the Downing Street Declaration of December 1993.

The predominantly Shiite Iraqi government has and continues to try to engage the Sunni's in the political process, and the violence wages on. The invasion began a process of democratization of Iraq, so naturally such a process would be inclusive. Unfortunately, this sort of process takes time but time is not what critics of the invasion want to give it. How long did the conflict in Ireland persist before things started to change? 15 years? 20? A mitigating factor in Iraq too is the presence of international terror organizations, like Al Qaida, which have to be dealt with.

Also this:

There are wider principles too.
# First, conflict and insurgency can be contained by military action; it cannot be defeated by it.
# Second, negotiation towards a settlement of conflict nearly always needs to be preceded by informal dialogue.
# Third, dialogue which is exploratory and non-committal can often make more progress than seeking commitments.
# Fourth, undeliverable preconditions are an end rather than beginning to dialogue.
# Fifth, exploratory dialogue should be as multilateral as possible to seek out potential areas of common ground.
# Sixth, low profile dialogue is more likely to succeed than that carried on in the bright spotlight of international publicity.
# Seventh, it is a better use of your time to talk to your enemies than your friends.

Our military presence there serves to contain the violence as anyone who reports from Iraq will tell you, which is why the consequence of our retreat is so dire for the Iraqis, and wherever our troops are, violence has been successfully contained to my knowledge. The administration has been steadfast in their position that the day Iraq can manage it's own security needs is the day our troops can come home. That seems to fulfill the spirit of the first principle outline above.

[Mulu]

Given that even the Green Zone isn't secure anymore, I don't think we can claim to have contained the violence anywhere in Iraq. We have been able to reduce it temporarily and locally, but it's a whack-a-mole operation.

Unlike the Irish example, where the negotiator was the UK, the US is simply an outsider to the conflict. Imagine if China had tried to contain the IRA. Our presence over time is creating a unity of resistance. The Shia are certainly willing to let us stay and kill Sunni for awhile longer, but if we don't leave on their schedule they'll be shooting at us too. I don't know that we are truly on anyone's side in Iraq, or that any of them are truly on our side. Ultimately the peace has to be negotiated by those who live there, and we don't live there. Still, the author describes some interesting strategies to be possibly employed.

Obviously Iraq is far more complicated than Northern Ireland, and the analogy only goes so far. But I did post it for a reason. There are lessons to be learned here. The primary lesson I took away from the article was the need to communicate with all parties. For us, that would potentially include Al Qaida. We're definitely going to be in Iraq for at least the next two years, so focusing on a political solution seems like a good use of our time, rather than some magic surge option.

One news item I actually see as a good thing is the discovery of vast oil wealth in the Sunni west. That would allow for partition of the country, even without a federal body to manage the oil, since each region now has its own. Though at this point I honestly don't think the civil war will end without one side subjugating the other. Not without trying to contain the conflict for 20 years anyway, an action we simply could not afford to take even if it were politically feasible. We'd go broke trying.

[mxlm]

I'd think the lessons of Iraq might be relevant.

Just saying, is all.

Philippines, too. Note that violence there continued, in an on-again-off-again manner, ah...through the present, really.

[ç i p h é r]

That link on Iraq is hardly a relevant historical lesson. Given the concluding remarks and the title of the book the author has published, I don't believe that Mr. Ferguson is even capable of making any objective historical comparisons. But I guess I must suffer from a "delusion of American exceptionalism" as well.

And BTW, history is not some mystical and immovable force that predetermines the course of the future. The point is to learn from the mistakes of the past to avoid the same outcome. Where one has failed, others can succeed. To think elsewise is to be hopelessly fatalistic.

[mxlm]

That's rather the point, actually.

I should point out that Ferguson is pro-American empire. His book was an exhortation for Americans to abandon their reluctance and embrace their empirehood, for the betterment of all mankind. Rather like Barnett's TPNM.

[NickD]

There were still bombings in London when I was living there in 1999-2002. The IRA didn't look like they were really going to disarm even then, years after the experiences written about in that article. Protestant and Catholic children in Northern Ireland were both still spat on by parents when they were enrolled in schools not primarily their own religion.

However, as I understand it (and far be it for me to put my knowledge over that of the Rt. Hon. Michael Ancram), the major turning point towards the disollution of the IRA was on August 15, 1998, with the Omagh bombing, which killed and wounded a fair few people and turned a lot of support away from the IRA. I believe after that the IRA went out of their way to make sure they didn't kill anyone with their bombs again. Certainly the three I recall in my time in London caused no casualities or even wounded.

I don't really see there being a huge backlash about innocent people getting killed by car bombs in Iraq... so I would say it's still a long way from being compared to the IRA.

[HATEFACE]

Given that even the Green Zone isn't secure anymore, I don't think we can claim to have contained the violence anywhere in Iraq. We have been able to reduce it temporarily and locally, but it's a whack-a-mole operation.

Unlike the Irish example, where the negotiator was the UK, the US is simply an outsider to the conflict. Imagine if China had tried to contain the IRA. Our presence over time is creating a unity of resistance. The Shia are certainly willing to let us stay and kill Sunni for awhile longer, but if we don't leave on their schedule they'll be shooting at us too. I don't know that we are truly on anyone's side in Iraq, or that any of them are truly on our side. Ultimately the peace has to be negotiated by those who live there, and we don't live there. Still, the author describes some interesting strategies to be possibly employed.

Obviously Iraq is far more complicated than Northern Ireland, and the analogy only goes so far. But I did post it for a reason. There are lessons to be learned here. The primary lesson I took away from the article was the need to communicate with all parties. For us, that would potentially include Al Qaida. We're definitely going to be in Iraq for at least the next two years, so focusing on a political solution seems like a good use of our time, rather than some magic surge option.

One news item I actually see as a good thing is the discovery of vast oil wealth in the Sunni west. That would allow for partition of the country, even without a federal body to manage the oil, since each region now has its own. Though at this point I honestly don't think the civil war will end without one side subjugating the other. Not without trying to contain the conflict for 20 years anyway, an action we simply could not afford to take even if it were politically feasible. We'd go broke trying.

Mulu, man, dawg! I feel like Randy Jackson trying to tell some shitty singer what I think of them. I just don't know where to begin with you, man. You're a little pitchy. . .

"The primary lesson I took away from the article was the need to communicate with all parties. For us, that would potentially include Al Qaida. We're definitely going to be in Iraq for at least the next two years, so focusing on a political solution seems like a good use of our time, rather than some magic surge option."

Damn dude, why do you have to say some retarded stuff? Did someone slap you across the head with a tire iron for brief instant before you keep typing? I don't even know if you're being serious. It seems like you actually are.

I guess it's nice that you learned that we need to talk to work out our problems. I'm a bit suprised you learned about that now. I learned about that in first grade. But I think it's very good!!!!

I hope you volunteer when it comes to one-on-one talks. I think you could work out great with Al Qaida and you could accomplish what I always believe you were destined to become. A decapitated torso. Your parents will be so proud!

I'm not sure what you mean by "magic surge option." You implying that the surge is magical and legions of arch-wizards are casting magic missle at the insurgents thus solving our problems?


Rather, I would come to think that we're shooting our magic bullets at them. You know the ones, don't you? The ones that blow off a good portion of whatever the magical guns are aiming at? More troops + More guns = More insurgents being blown to hell amiright? I don't know how that makes it magical.

Let's be reasonable here Mulu. The surge isn't a magical means to end violence. Rather it's a step by step solution. I'm not sure how well the surge will go considering it's still in it's infancy. I know you're a bit cynical about the war, to the point that you would actually be willing to talk with murderous terrorists.

I want to add. I won't be suprised if it fails and I know you won't be either. But the blame rests squarely upon house democratic appropriations and pork barrel war funding policies.


But let's allow the surge some time, yeah? I know you're upset that the war has gone on so long and that you suffer daily knowing that this struggle costs you the. . . uh, whatever it is it's costing you. Higher gas prices maybe? Missing loved ones who serve? It's a lot to take in and deal with. I'm here for you man after all, I have loved ones serving in iraq too.

That link on Iraq is hardly a relevant historical lesson. Given the concluding remarks and the title of the book the author has published, I don't believe that Mr. Ferguson is even capable of making any objective historical comparisons. But I guess I must suffer from a "delusion of American exceptionalism" as well.

And BTW, history is not some mystical and immovable force that predetermines the course of the future. The point is to learn from the mistakes of the past to avoid the same outcome. Where one has failed, others can succeed. To think elsewise is to be hopelessly fatalistic.

Thank you for those words.

[mxlm]

So I take it you don't really want to go the 'citation' route after all, Helios? And presumably you don't want to go the 'let's all be nice route', either, given your comments to Mulu.

Or would you care to explain why the comparison is invalid? Look at the second article before doing so, if you haven't already.

[Mulu]

Let's be reasonable here Mulu. The surge isn't a magical means to end violence. Rather it's a step by step solution.

Really? What's the next step? More magic, actually. After our magic surge ends violence in Baghdad, then the Iraqi's will magically finish training their army and police without sectarian militia infiltration and be able to quell violence in the rest of Iraq, and their government will be magically seen as legitimate in the eyes of the Iraqis, thus allowing us to establish a permanent base in the region in gratitude.

Talk about a fairy tale.

As for not following your own exhortations, I never doubted it for a moment. Trolls never follow their own rules.

[HATEFACE]

Let's be reasonable here Mulu. The surge isn't a magical means to end violence. Rather it's a step by step solution.

Really? What's the next step? More magic, actually. After our magic surge ends violence in Baghdad, then the Iraqi's will magically finish training their army and police without sectarian militia infiltration and be able to quell violence in the rest of Iraq, and their government will be magically seen as legitimate in the eyes of the Iraqis, thus allowing us to establish a permanent base in the region in gratitude.

Talk about a fairy tale.

As for not following your own exhortations, I never doubted it for a moment. Trolls never follow their own rules.

I know, it was foolish that I was expecting you to as well.
. . .and I was waiting for that. Thanks. Have a nice day Mulu.

When in doubt, be jerks! See what I mean by a little bit of goading?
You won't learn in a day, you won't learn in a week, not even a month or a year. But you believe and I believe we can talk things out. . .
I'm not completely unreasonable, am I?

[mxlm]

Still not explaining why the comparison is invalid, I note.

*taps foot, frowns*

Well, I guess we could always cyber instead. Meet me on #alfasehexy?

[Mulu]

Actually mxlm, I don't think the comparison is valid. In the British example, the kurds, shia and sunni united to toss out a perceived oppressor. Today, those factions are hardly united. They are instead in a deepening spiral of violence against each other, with us largely as incidental targets. We are no one's natural enemy in Iraq (well, with the exception of Al Qaida), and we are no one's natural ally, we are simply an opportunity for some to exploit, and an obstacle for others to thwart.

Helios, I wasn't actually being a jerk before, but I'll be one now if you really desire it. I think you've brought a .22 caliber mind to a .45 caliber debate. Good luck.

[HATEFACE]

Actually mxlm, I don't think the comparison is valid. In the British example, the kurds, shia and sunni united to toss out a perceived oppressor. Today, those factions are hardly united. They are instead in a deepening spiral of violence against each other, with us largely as incidental targets. We are no one's natural enemy in Iraq (well, with the exception of Al Qaida), and we are no one's natural ally, we are simply an opportunity for some to exploit, and an obstacle for others to thwart.

Helios, I wasn't actually being a jerk before, but I'll be one now if you really desire it. I think you've brought a .22 caliber mind to a .45 caliber debate. Good luck.

I disagree, I know you were being a jerk. Hence the whole talk about magic solutions, surge, magic everything. The surge isn't magical.

Baby, your gun isn't even loaded. Notice anything yet? I'll keep waiting until you do. . . I don't actually want to ruin the suprise. Remember who is the grade A jerk-off here, it's me, and I'm good at it. Thare can be only one!!! **Lops off Mulu's head and steals his power.** to paraphrase Nansi Pelosi when she took congress "TEH POWER!!"

Bring it on, I challenge you to a jerk-off. lol, get it? Jerk-off? This whole thing is a massive political circle jerk. Maybe we should play alfa somes? Nah! **Dons boxing gloves.**

As for the surge, we don't know if it will work or not. However, to claim it will fail isn't proper either. Just wait and see. I have high expectations, you have low expectations. Yes, I'll be disapointed if it doesn't work. You, can sit comfortably saying, "I told you so! LOL I'ma smarty pants!"


Small edit:

Actually mxlm, I don't think the comparison is valid. In the British example, the kurds, shia and sunni united to toss out a perceived oppressor. Today, those factions are hardly united. They are instead in a deepening spiral of violence against each other, with us largely as incidental targets. We are no one's natural enemy in Iraq (well, with the exception of Al Qaida), and we are no one's natural ally, we are simply an opportunity for some to exploit, and an obstacle for others to thwart.

Yes, and no.

We're the ally of the Iraqi government.

Iran's Revolutionary guard is one of them that is exploiting us, and we're also their obstacle for the moment.
We are AQ's "natural" enemy.